MANILA, Philippines - Metrobank Group’s First Metro Investments Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) see the amount of money sent home by Filipinos abroad growing between six percent and seven percent this year with the expected gobal economic recovery.
FMIC and UA&P in its The Market Call Capital Markets Research said the growth of overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances would remain in double digit level this year with the gradual recovery from the gobal financial meltdown.
“And with the improvement of our host countries’ economies, we see remittances growing by six percent to eight percent this year,” the groups said.
The research note stated that OFW remittances would grow between four percent and six percent in the first quarter of the year.
“OFW remittance growth in US dollar terms will remain single digit in Q1, moving in a tight range of four percent to six percent, but in peso terms this will be closer to zero, thus giving little added stimulus to the economy,” FMIC and UA&P added.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) sees OFW remittances growing by at least six percent this year from a record $17.1 billion last year.
Latest data from the BSP showed that OFW remittances climbed by 5.1 percent to $15.78 billion as of end-November last year from $15.019 billion as of end-November in 2008. This after it accelerated to its fastest level in 14 months after it grew by 11.3 percent to $1.459 billion in November last year from $1.311 billion in the same month in 2008.
Major sources of remittances included the US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Japan, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Italy, and Germany.
“Though not as high as recorded in earlier years, US dollar remittances outperformed expectations of negative to flat growth by many foreign institutions. As expected, these remittances kept the Philippine economy buoyant while neighboring countries, except for Indonesia and Vietnam, saw their economies shrink in 2009,” it added.
FMIC an UA&P added that another driving force behind this is the increase in services such as money transfers and account transfers provided by commercial banks.
The groups said the appreciation of the peso against the dollar would continue to mitigate the effects of high OFW remittances on domestic consumption spending in the country.
According to the, OFW remittances could have gone up by 5.5 percent last year or better than the projected four percent growth forecast sey by BSP officials.
“Given the strong inflow of remittances during the Christmas holidays, we think that it is still possible for remittances to post 5.5 percent growth for 2009.”
Source: The Philippine Star
